That Soccer Guy

DC pulled off the 1-0 win off an Emilio 16th minute goal Saturday, keeping their chances at the MLS playoffs alive. They now share a 4 way tie with Toronto, Dallas, and New England. United must rely on going to Kansas City and must win to keep any chances alive. The guys over at behindthebadge.com broke down DC’s playoff chances. Take a look…

1) If United loses at KC, it will not qualify for the playoffs.

2) If United draws at KC, it would need at least two of the following results to occur:
New England to lose at Columbus.
Toronto FC to lose at New York.
Real Salt Lake to draw or lose vs. Colorado.
FC Dallas to draw or lose at Seattle.

3) If United wins at KC, the following could happen…
FC Dallas could win, draw or lose and have no effect.
… and D.C. would need two of the following to occur
Chicago to lose vs. Chivas USA.
Colorado to draw or lose at Real Salt Lake.
New England to draw or lose at Columbus.
Toronto FC to draw or lose New York.

There are a ton of tie-breaker possibilities that we’ll be working on figuring out over the weekend. The only teams United owns the head-to-head tie breaker against (the first determining factor in a tie in points) is Chicago and Dallas.

Bottom line: a win goes a long way towards seeing the Black-and-Red return to the post-season.

With the standings as they are heading into the last week, there is a possibility after next week’s results of several teams being tied on points – and thus we must delve into the world of tie-breakers.

If there are multiple teams tied on points (and as many as six could be after the season’s final games), the important thing to remember is that the first tie-breaker is head-to-head competition. From the MLS rule book:

First tie-breaker: The highest position shall be awarded to the team with the better win/loss record in current regular season games against all other teams equal in points. (head-to-head competition)

This tie-breaker is a little strange if there are several teams tied on points. Let’s say that, six teams are tied on points at the completion of all games and there are two playoff spots available – one must first calculate every team’s head-to-head record against each of the five other teams. The team that has the best head-to-head record amongst those six teams is then awarded the highest available playoff spot, and thus removed from the group of tied teams. Then the head-to-head records of the five remaining teams must then be RE-calculated to determine who has the best head-to-head record and should receive the final playoff spot. Got it?

Here are a few of the multiple-teams-are-tied-and-my-head-is-going-explode possibilities with the tie-breakers worked out…

If RSL defeats COL and DAL-SEA tie and DC-KC tie and NE-CLB tie and TOR-NY tie, then there are six teams tied with 40 points.
In that scenario, TOR gets seventh place, then COL gets eighth

If CHV defeats CHI and DAL defeats SEA and DC defeats KC and NE defeats CLB and TOR defeats NY, then there are five teams tied for 42 points.
If COL defeats RSL, they would then take sixth place, and so:
DC gets seventh place, and DAL gets eighth place.
If RSL defeats COL, or they tie, they both finish with less than 42, so they’re out.
And so: DC gets sixth place, DAL gets seventh place, CHI gets eighth place.

Clear enough for you?

Wow. I think that’s all I can say after this. This is one of those times where I wonder if it is even possible at this point. You also have to look at the fact that the team has to travel to Toluca tomorrow to try to keep their CONCACAF Champions League hopes alive. 2 matches in 1 week to keep them in 2 competitions. Let the nail biting commence!